#1) Commercial property outlook

• Vacancies rising
• Rents falling
• Difficult to refinance creating loan defaults
• Rents dropping 1% – 2% per-quarter in 2010

Implication
Potential bargains for broker/owners to renegotiate leases and seek out new space

#2) Employment outlook

• Peaking around 11% in early 2010
• Turning around, but not until Spring 2010 or so

Implication
Rarely, if ever, has there been such a large and diversified pool of talent to hire!

#3) Financial Services Outlook

• New mortgage rules may delay closings
• Buyers have three days to study terms of loan
• Terms must be written in plain language
• Emphasis on comparison shopping makes it easier for buyers to back-out
• These regulations increase compliance costs for banks

Implication
Educating agents on new mortgage rules now will help buyers and real estate brokers achieve their 2010 goals

#4) Corporate profits

• Up about 8% in 2010
• First upswing since 2006
• Companies have a long way to go to recover lost ground over four years

Implication
No real implications for our business in 2010.

#5) Energy costs

• Gasoline up 30 – 40 cents per gallon
• Natural gas up 15%
• Heating oil up 25 cents per gallon
• Propane down about 10 cents per gallon due to plentiful supply

Implication
There is an ever-increasing need to continually re-examine budgeting for energy costs

#6) Postage, parcel and overnight delivery costs

• Bulk mail up 2.5%
• Overnight letters and parcels up 5%
• First class stamps up 1 cent

Implication
Yet another reason to automate and push key functions to on-line applications

#7) Health care costs

• Costs for health care companies up another 10%
• Rx drug costs up, but only in the single digits

Implication
Actual premiums won’t increase dramatically, due to competition in the marketplace

#8) Business services

• Legal fees mostly unchanged due to flat fee schedules in lieu of billable hours
• Charges for exhibiting at conventions – flat
• Advertising costs will decline between 2% (magazine) and 5% (TV) and online banner ads will remain low due to the abundance of ad space across the web
• Office supplies – flat

Implication
Business services will be mostly budget neutral year-over-year

Steps to consider in developing 2010 business plans

1. Look for opportunities to renegotiate rents and/or target new locations. Ask for free months, and allowances for moving and remodeling.
2. Create new and sustained emphasis on talent attraction (aka recruiting). Don’t miss this window of opportunity!
3. Create an agent training program around new mortgage regulations and implement as soon as possible.
4. Re-budget for expected changes in cost structures
5. Rework your marketing strategies to include ever more emphasis on the on-line environment
6. Allow some flex room in the budget for slightly increased health care costs, but maintain a relatively consistent spend year-over-year for professional services.

Do you have a mobile version (dotmobi) of your Website? You might want to seriously consider doing so if you haven’t. ClickZ provides some basic comScore stats that indicate the exploding use of mobile search, which more than doubled from January 2008-January 2009.

According to NikNik, Lifestreaming is “an effective way to organize and display your collective thoughts, ideas, blog posts, and social connections that you share online.” Her post Lifestreaming Real Estate Web Content, explains what lifestreaming is and how real estate agents can strategically think about how and what to choose to share in their lifestream, as well as where they can make it available.

Twitter is growing exponentially. But… is there a retention problem? Quick burnout? It appears there might be. Check this post from Nielsen

Which commericals turn you on? Which ones turn you off? Marilyn from  Wav Group gives up this post on what some companies are doing to create really compelling ads.

Just take a moment and consider all of the changes that have occurred over the past 10 years alone. In 1998, many agents did not have presentable Web sites or even effectively used e-mail as a communication tool. As time passed however, sales professionals learned to use technology in building and managing their businesses and navigated the advent of VOWs and IDX solutions. Brokers and agents have witnessed the transformation of marketing and advertising from sole focus on newspapers to a primary focus on Internet environments, as well as countless other key changes too numerous to mention here. Now, prospecting and social networking are coming together as building blocks to enlarge an agent’s sphere of influence.

So I am sure that you are asking yourself, “Where will the next key changes affecting our industry be?” The point of this blog is that the answer to that question doesn’t really matter. What matters, is that the “hip” agent will remain wildly optimistic about our business. What matters is for us to remain unbelievably positive about the good that we accomplish in serving the public, as we have done for so many years. Finally, what really matters is that the “hip” broker look to change as a way for our industry to improve and, in so doing, serve our customers and clients in the most effective way possible.